Tornado watch likely Mesoscale Discussion 2010

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO...SERN IA...AND WRN/CENTRAL
AND NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 171347Z - 171515Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO
NRN/CENTRAL MO BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH ACTIVITY THEN MOVING QUICKLY
EWD INTO MUCH OF IL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED WITH THE POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE INTO LONG-LIVED DISCRETE TO
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THREATS FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THESE INITIAL STORMS SUGGEST A TORNADO WATCH MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED BY MID-LATE MORNING.

DISCUSSION...MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM SWRN-NERN
MO INTO SERN IA NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF REFLECTIVITY EXTENDING FROM SWRN IA INTO
NWRN MO /INVOF KANSAS CITY MO/...WITH THIS LIKELY INDICATING THE
PRESENCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ADVANCING EWD INTO THIS REGION. STORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED...ARE
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/ERN IA ALONG AND N OF A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
SWRN-NERN IA.

THE DEGREE OF FORCING ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALREADY PRESENT
OVER MO/IL /E.G. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT/ IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD FROM CENTRAL/ERN IA INTO NRN/CENTRAL MO
AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKING
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2013


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 38589247 39839289 41419214 42039044 42258924 42138769
40058797 38328946 37929044 37869177 38589247

www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/md/md2010.html

[rocket]

Torcon has been raised to 9 . source the weather channel

[Deleted]

We're now under a tornado watch until 4 pm.

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This is a pds storm






URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
SCOTT AFB ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MADISON WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...ONE OR MORE BROKEN BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA TODAY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG
TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND CORRIDORS OF WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.


...MEAD

[davesez]

Torcon value raised to 9 for our area stay safe