Post by rocket on Oct 20, 2013 5:36:48 GMT -6
Possible snow flurries on Wednesday for the Chicago area ,possibly including our area as well.
That low over nd is suppose to move s/e towards il and stall out over the lake ,giving us a chance of snow flurries over the area.
Funny thing is ,I still see people refusing to dress for the weather.
Still wearing short sleeves or tank tops and shorts in these cold temps.
000
FXUS63 KLOT 200843
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
343 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
329 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...BUT THEN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE FIRST AREA WIDE
FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT A FREEZE HEADLINE TO BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY. THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS
THE FIRST DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED. ANOTHER BATCH OF
CLOUDS IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT WANT TO PULL THE
ADVISORY WHEN A FEW SITES HAVE REACHED FREEZING ALREADY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND IT WILL PASS
THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING ONTARIO
MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS STILL FLUCTUATING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW
TRAVELS THROUGH WISCONSIN BUT TIMING AND OTHER FEATURES HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT.
THE LOWS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG WAA LEADING TO 850MB TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C. TEMPS AT THE SURFACE
WILL SOAR INTO THE 60S AND S TO SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30KT. THE
LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH W WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE LOW IS PULLING OFF TO THE NE SO
THINKING THE BETTER FORCING AND CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
MOST OF THE NIGHT SO KEPT TEMPS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE. 30S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL AS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY CLEAR
FIRST...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST IN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH COOLER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND IT. AS
SUCH...THE COOL DOWN BEGINS MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -4 TO
-6C BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY BUT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT. FALL RETURNS WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.
THE REAL COLD WILL BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY...AND EXPECT FREEZE
HEADLINES TO BE HOISTED LATER TODAY. WINDCHILLS WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR...WITH SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS SEEING MIN WINDCHILLS IN
THE TEENS.
A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
WHILE A SURFACE LOW SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
TO MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS A BIT ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THIS LOW...WITH THE CURRENT RUNS FEATURING THE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH THAN BEFORE. ALSO THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT CLOSER TO THE 12Z
GFS...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE LOW.
EXPECTING PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS TRICKY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE LOW TRACK. KEPT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT SNOW
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO
STRAIGHT SNOW JUST YET. NOTE...THE GFS FEATURES 2 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER CHICAGO TUESDAY. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY WARM ACROSS
THE REGION SO IF SNOW WERE TO FALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. FOR INSTANCE...AT THE OFFICE THIS MORNING...OUR 4
INCH SOIL TEMPERATURE WAS 50F.
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE
NORTH TO THE LOW 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THAN MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER BUT STILL IN THE LOW 30S. SOME
OF THE OUTLYING AREAS MAY EVEN DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SOUTH WINDS DOWN THE LAKE SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE
AND LAND WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SO HAVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST. DELTA
TS WILL BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE...AT 20 DEGREES. NORTHWEST WINDS
WOULD FAVOR PORTER COUNTY...BUT KEPT POPS OVER ALL OF NW INDIANA TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY WIND SHIFTS OR STRAY SHOWERS. WINDS BECOME WEST
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OVER MICHIGAN.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL THROUGH LATE
WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DO HAVE PERIODIC LOW CHANCE POPS OVER PORTER
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP BUT DO THINK THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL FALL EAST OF NW INDIANA. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW SO
DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANCES TO ALLBLEND POPS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVE.
* SCATTERED SHRA WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVE.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=IL&prodtype=discussion
That low over nd is suppose to move s/e towards il and stall out over the lake ,giving us a chance of snow flurries over the area.
Funny thing is ,I still see people refusing to dress for the weather.
Still wearing short sleeves or tank tops and shorts in these cold temps.
000
FXUS63 KLOT 200843
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
343 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
329 AM CDT
SYNOPSIS...TODAY WILL BE A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY...BUT THEN MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE FIRST AREA WIDE
FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT A FREEZE HEADLINE TO BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY. THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIP AND PERHAPS
THE FIRST DECENT CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY NIGHT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WILL KEEP THE FROST ADVISORY GOING FOR NOW ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED. ANOTHER BATCH OF
CLOUDS IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT WANT TO PULL THE
ADVISORY WHEN A FEW SITES HAVE REACHED FREEZING ALREADY.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA WITH ZONAL FLOW
EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH PASSES TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND IT WILL PASS
THROUGH WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING ONTARIO
MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS STILL FLUCTUATING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW
TRAVELS THROUGH WISCONSIN BUT TIMING AND OTHER FEATURES HAVE
REMAINED CONSISTENT.
THE LOWS WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
STRONG WAA LEADING TO 850MB TEMPS OF 4 TO 8C. TEMPS AT THE SURFACE
WILL SOAR INTO THE 60S AND S TO SW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30KT. THE
LOWS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH W WINDS
GUSTING AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE STILL APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE LOW IS PULLING OFF TO THE NE SO
THINKING THE BETTER FORCING AND CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF PRECIP ALONG THE
FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THICK CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
MOST OF THE NIGHT SO KEPT TEMPS A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE. 30S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IL AS THIS AREA WILL LIKELY CLEAR
FIRST...AND THEN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IL AND
NORTHWEST IN.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PASSES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH COOLER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND IT. AS
SUCH...THE COOL DOWN BEGINS MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO -4 TO
-6C BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY BUT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30KT. FALL RETURNS WITH
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.
THE REAL COLD WILL BE FELT MONDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKY AND DIMINISHING
WINDS WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY...AND EXPECT FREEZE
HEADLINES TO BE HOISTED LATER TODAY. WINDCHILLS WILL ALSO BE A
FACTOR...WITH SOME OF THE OUTLYING AREAS SEEING MIN WINDCHILLS IN
THE TEENS.
A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
WHILE A SURFACE LOW SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
TO MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS A BIT ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH THIS LOW...WITH THE CURRENT RUNS FEATURING THE LOW FARTHER
SOUTH THAN BEFORE. ALSO THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF IS A BIT CLOSER TO THE 12Z
GFS...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FASTER WITH THE LOW.
EXPECTING PRECIP TO MOVE THROUGH WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE IS TRICKY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE LOW TRACK. KEPT RAIN OR SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUNDINGS AND SURFACE TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT SNOW
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO
STRAIGHT SNOW JUST YET. NOTE...THE GFS FEATURES 2 INCHES OF SNOW
OVER CHICAGO TUESDAY. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL VERY WARM ACROSS
THE REGION SO IF SNOW WERE TO FALL...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION. FOR INSTANCE...AT THE OFFICE THIS MORNING...OUR 4
INCH SOIL TEMPERATURE WAS 50F.
TUESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S TO THE
NORTH TO THE LOW 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THAN MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER BUT STILL IN THE LOW 30S. SOME
OF THE OUTLYING AREAS MAY EVEN DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S.
SOUTH WINDS DOWN THE LAKE SUGGEST LAKE EFFECT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE
AND LAND WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SO HAVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST. DELTA
TS WILL BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE...AT 20 DEGREES. NORTHWEST WINDS
WOULD FAVOR PORTER COUNTY...BUT KEPT POPS OVER ALL OF NW INDIANA TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY WIND SHIFTS OR STRAY SHOWERS. WINDS BECOME WEST
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING LAKE EFFECT PRECIP OVER MICHIGAN.
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 40S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE LAKE.
EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL THROUGH LATE
WEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DO HAVE PERIODIC LOW CHANCE POPS OVER PORTER
COUNTY DUE TO LAKE EFFECT PRECIP BUT DO THINK THAT THE VAST MAJORITY
OF LAKE EFFECT PRECIP WILL FALL EAST OF NW INDIANA. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS. GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW SO
DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANCES TO ALLBLEND POPS.
JEE
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 09Z...
* PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THIS EVE.
* SCATTERED SHRA WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVE.
* GUSTY WEST WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=IL&prodtype=discussion